Value Realization
Projected vs. Realized AI ROI: Why They Diverge
A framework for comparing the value forecast in an AI business case with the value actually realized after deployment.
Projected ROI is an investment hypothesis
Before implementation, an AI business case estimates what could happen if a set of assumptions is true.
Realized value depends on actual usage
Track active users, eligible transactions, actual utilization and the percentage of work that genuinely moves through the new process.
Time saved is not automatically financial value
Hard savings require a real change in spending. Capacity value requires evidence that released time is used productively.
Production costs change the denominator
Realized ROI should use the actual ongoing cost of operating the capability.
Benefit leakage explains many gaps
Measure the complete workflow rather than only the AI interaction.
Build a forecast-to-actual bridge
Show the projected assumption, actual result and financial effect of each major variance.
Use realized value to decide the next investment
Realized-value measurement turns AI governance into a continuing capital-allocation process.